5 of the great German rival Deutsche Bahn

The destination was known, was left to find the path to get there. His arrival this spring at the head of the SNCF, Guillaume Pepy had set ambitious goals by 2012: increase the turnover of the railway company of at least 50 over five years and double its operating income over the same period. The Board of Directors which was held yesterday to fix the financial model intended to accomplish these objectives.

Obviously, it will take the SNCF demonstrate boldness to do so. According to our information, the public group provides approximately 3.5 billion euros of external growth over the period to achieve his goal and exceed the cap of the 40 billion euros of turnover. This are mainly the transport and logistics (Geodis, rail freight...) and proximity (TER, public transport) will benefit from this envelope in the years to come. "Branch proximities can logically suggests that the Keolis subsidiary should take the weight and the arm of this strategy", considers a close to the record.

As a corollary of these investments, debt know him also a curve upward, from EUR 4.5 billion in 2007 to approximately 10 billion euros in 2012 ("Les Echos" of yesterday). Debt of the Group should rise by 0.5 times the own funds to a close level of 1, which is still lower than the rate of 1.5 of the great German rival, Deutsche Bahn.

Black scenario for cargo

"This plan is ambitious." "But the group will have to do better if it wants to deal in good conditions the period 2012-2020, which will be crucial for its future", says a good connoisseur of the company. By 2012, the SNCF is indeed able to partially fund its growth through "cow milk" TGV, which should continue to identify (greater than 20 in 2008) large margins in the coming years. But the song is much different after 2012, when the company should manage the competition, the increase in tolls and especially the renewal of the fleet of TGV (the call for applications should be launched next summer) that will significantly encumber its self-financing capacity.

Other levers of funding will have to be found, what happen necessarily through the improvement of the economic models of the three other branches (Transport and logistics, proximities, and infrastructure), very precarious equilibrium for the moment.

Thus, the first should continue to suffer problems of cargo SNCF: according to several sources, the more black scenario provides for a widening of the deficit of this activity to EUR 400 million next year, against 350 million euros expected in 2008. Branch infrastructure the operation and maintenance of the rail network are entrusted to the SNCF by Réseau Ferré de France (RFF), the owner of the rails will continue to consume cash if the contractual framework with RFF is not changing. Finally, the SNCF hopes term escalate the margin rates of activity proximities currently between 1 and 2 that the regions take account of the investments.

Another priority: funding of the State or regions of certain missions structurally deficit, as the coral Intercités interregional transport linkages, the deficit should approach the EUR 70 million in 2008 ("Les Echos" from December 16).