In fact the French industry is recovering gradually

A month is not necessarily a trend. Friday, the Insee announced a net decrease of industrial production in October from the month previous (-0,8). A downturn largely due to the strikes associated with the pension reform, which heavily disturbed areas such as refining activity (whose production collapsed 56.5!) and, to a lesser extent, chemistry (-3). Beyond the fact that a portion of the lost production should have been retrieved in November, "this high volatility hides a good progression from other manufacturing sectors", said Exane BNP Paribas. Not to mention that the recent surveys industrial bode acceleration in progress.

In fact, the French industry is recovering gradually. "Three months, manufacturing production increases and exceeds 4.7 the level of last year", said Insee. But the recovery is much slower than the fall which had preceded. Between the peak of February 2008 and the lowest for April, 2009, manufacturing was sunk 20. Since then, the index is restated course but it remains far below its pre-crisis level: barely more than a third of the lost ground was recovered.

The stigma of the crisis are therefore still a present. And they could put a lot of time to fade. Since the reboot, the pace of production is an average of 0.5 per month. If this rate are projected in the future, the industry does find not before pre-crisis level... early 2013. Meanwhile, five years will be passed.

Chemistry is recovering

In this context, although few are areas to take the advantage of the game. From February 2008, only pharmaceutical activity frankly grew ( 20). But this sector had very few suffered from the crisis, particularly because sales of drugs are insensitive to the vagaries of the economy. Production is roughly stable in rail and aviation transportation, except for a cyclical downturn in October, as well as in the food industry. But, again, these are areas which have been relatively spared by the crisis.

In the end, chemistry seems truly to the first sector to have erased its losses for 2009. "Overall, at the end of the third quarter of 2010, activity has just found his level of the same quarter of 2008, date on which the chemistry is strongly fell into crisis, explains Daniel Marini, of the Union of chemical industries (UIC).". This remedy is linked at the end of destocking, the return of an application for our clients such as the automobile and the strong growth in emerging countries. "The decline registered in October a little temper this finding.

Stop of the investment

Other sectors really struggle to meet the head. Even though he is recovering from a few months, the capital goods sector is still in net decline (-21 from February 2008), following the judgment of investment coup companies. "The delay will be years to fill because companies still have overcapacity of production," said Yann Lacroix, in charge of sectoral forecasts in Heuler Hermes.

In the automotive sector, the implementation of the premium case allowed him to limit the damage (see below). But it did not cure the structural decline in production on French soil, which is not yesterday. In this, automotive is quite symptomatic of the French industry as a whole: the crisis has been to enhance pre-existing difficulties.