But OPEC is facing new internal fracture lines

OPEC tomorrow blows its fifty candles. Founded on September 14, 1960, in Baghdad, by five countries wishing to raise the price so low oil, the cartel, the most strategic raw material seeks to solve classical existential questions at this age today. The Organization of petroleum exporting countries (OPEC) is indeed subject to geo-strategic tension and leadership challenges very lively.

Certainly, the dissension and controversies have always been part of the life of the Organization since its birth. If agreement on the price to achieve and establish production quotas is nothing simple - is also not a coincidence if almost all other raw materials cartels have failed. But OPEC is facing new internal fracture lines. Ideological firstly. If the five founding members (Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela) in 1960 were all in the sphere of Western influence, the image of the Shah of Iran, OPEC of today is more diverse.

It has 12 members, including two of the fiercely anti-American regimes on the planet, Tehran and Caracas. These two countries, which could count on the support of an Ecuador him also virulent to Washington and a Libya to the unpredictable game, could grow to use oil as a weapon. And they challenge the leadership of Saudi Arabia, a key element of the "pax americana" in the Middle East since 1932.

But Riyadh has always been the "boss" of the organization. Its huge deposits (one-quarter of the world's proven reserves and one-third of OPEC) allow for huge capacity to regulate the market. Saudi Arabia can be wells in battery on an urgent basis when prices rising threat of a recession the client countries, the risk therefore adversely affect the revenue of exporters. It may instead reduce supply when prices are too low paying.

The "boss" must also take account of the rise of a rival in terms of production, the Iraq. After three decades of war and embargo, Baghdad appears only in the 11erang of oil producers, but aims to delight quickly to Iran world la4eplace, behind the Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States. With the recent fall of the sabotage, Baghdad, fort of the second oil reserves of the planet, has tripled its production in six years, to 7.5 million barrels per day. But, before to tickle the leadership Saudi, it must overcome well with problèmejuridiques, safe and techniques, including the construction of infrastructure for an estimated cost of $ 100 billion.

Prospecting efforts

Another challenge, and not least, the OPEC: maintain its role as lead organization. A role acquired by a burst of nationalizations in the years 1960-1970, with the result that three quarters of the world of oil reserves now belong to national monopolies.

To respond to an oil consumption multiplied by 3.7 since 1960, more than 80 million barrels per day, significant exploration efforts are necessary. OPEC, which accounts for 40 of production, is not in a position to fix the price of oil by a simple decision. It must invest.

OPEC faces as the rise in power from other sources of energy, have become competitive with the rising prices. This is the case of huge non-conventional oil deposits discovered in the Canada and ultraprofonds fields off the coast of the Brazil. Or American unconventional gas, which would add to him only more than one hundred years of reserves... Not to mention nuclear and green energy, which have the wind in its sails. The cars are to roll electricity rather than gasoline, if all the cartel which flicker... Maintain prices without choke so customers: OPEC faces the difficult equation she knows since fifty years